What Connecticut’s Primaries Actually Told Us

Last week, we wrote that Tuesday’s primaries would test whether Connecticut was experiencing a broad anti-incumbent mood, a demand for generational turnover, a genuine organizing movement among progressives, or some combination of the three.

Well, we’re on the other side of the Election and the results actually offer evidence of each, although none captures the night in its entirety.

Start at the top of the ticket, where it was a great night for Gov. Ned Lamont. He defeated Josh Elliott 68% to 32%, carried nearly every town and received more than twice as many votes as his challenger. Despite tightening polls, including our own, and what appeared to be building momentum for Elliott, the race did not materialize to the level many observers, including us, expected. Once they reached the ballot box, Democratic primary voters strongly supported the incumbent.

Elliott still received nearly 60,000 votes and almost a third of the statewide vote despite beginning the race last winter with limited name recognition, and lacking institutional support from Democratic leaders. That is meaningful for a challenger who was asking voters to reject a two-term governor with strong approval ratings. Elliott’s campaign demonstrated that there is a sizable constituency within the state’s Democratic Party that wants to see more decisive action on electricity rates, property taxes and the broader cost of living.

Lamont, however, did more than survive; he won convincingly, and is entering the general election in a strong position.

So, what should he take with him into November?

The temptation may be to shift toward center-right issues in pursuit of unaffiliated voters and moderate Republicans. There will be room for Lamont to emphasize Connecticut’s positive fiscal position during his tenure, especially against Republican nominee Ryan Fazio. But Tuesday offers little reason to move away from the affordability concerns that dominated the primary. Elliott’s strongest arguments focused on the costs families encounter every month, and Fazio has already begun making his own case around electricity rates, property taxes and affordability. Lamont’s strongest general-election message may combine his record on fiscal management with a more direct path to make Connecticut less expensive for working and middle-class families.

Another significant challenge for Fazio to overcome is the drag Trump clearly is on the Republican Party brand, across the board. It will be interesting to see how Fazio deals with that dynamic, and whether the usually mild-mannered Lamont tries to exploit it.

Further down the ticket, the 1st Congressional District produced a different judgment. Luke Bronin defeated John Larson 53% to 33%, an overwhelming victory in a four-way race against a 14-term incumbent. In fact, Bronin carried 25 of the District’s 27 towns; Larson only carried his hometown of East Hartford (and not by much), and tiny Hartland.

A disclosure is warranted here: ImpactCT participated in the 1st District primary through an uncoordinated independent expenditure effort supporting Bronin.

Bronin’s victory has already become part of national headlines about longtime members of Congress losing to younger challengers. It also carries some particular lessons for Connecticut. Bronin first defeated Larson for the party endorsement at the Convention, and then won decisively among primary voters, making a sustained argument for new leadership, greater urgency and generational change at the federal level.

Unlike many races this primary season, this was not an intraparty ideological race. Bronin did not run as a significant departure from Larson on most major Democratic priorities, and Larson’s attempts to recast the race as an ideological fight did not persuade enough voters. The result shows that a challenger can defeat an incumbent by arguing that familiar Democratic values require new energy and more effective leadership. Voters can want change without demanding a wholesale shift in the party’s ideology - at least in Connecticut.

Tuesday was also a win for self-described progressives. Maryam Khan won the 2nd Senate District primary over Ayana Taylor and incumbent Doug McCrory. Khan combined progressive priorities with the party endorsement and a message centered on affordability, utility accountability and public trust. In New Haven, Eli Sabin defeated 21-term state Rep. Pat Dillon and DSA-backed Justin Farmer. Sabin received about 44% of the vote, compared with 36% for Dillon and 20% for Farmer.

Tuesday was a very good night for Lamont, a good night for progressives and an especially strong night for candidates who made a convincing case for new leadership. It’s tempting to declare that a trend has developed based on Election results. But races are usually decided on their own merits. Here in Connecticut this primary season, voters supported candidates from different parts of the Democratic coalition who successfully connected their campaigns to recognizable concerns in their communities and persuaded voters that they could address them.